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Next Israeli war…Data, Scenarios
According to the increasing Israeli recognitions, testimonies and documents, there is a crystal clear fact that got established in the Israeli arena: that Israel was practically dealt a heavy defeat by Hezbollah which won’t be forgotten along Israeli generations.This conclusion in the Israeli strategic military scale has a direct relation with the concepts " greater Israel " and " the undef
Friday, December 8,2006 00:00
by Nawwaf Al IZru, Aljazeera

According to the increasing Israeli recognitions, testimonies and documents, there is a crystal clear fact that got established in the Israeli arena: that Israel was practically dealt a heavy defeat by Hezbollah which won’t be forgotten along Israeli generations.
This conclusion in the Israeli strategic military scale has a direct relation with the concepts " greater Israel " and " the undefeated army" and also " the military belief and theories" and " the absolute superiority " and " the deterrence capability" and " influencing the consciousness" among them.
The occupation state has sought, since the Nakba of 1948, to produce its own version around every war with the aim of affecting the consciousness of Israelis themselves and occupy the Arab and Palestinian consciousness in particular in addition to occupying the international consciousness.

Military theories, concepts collapsed
This country has sought- throughout the past decades- to circulate a special version that depict her as having a small, intelligent and strong army which is undefeated and achieves fast sweeping victories over all Arab countries and armies.
But Hezbollah, according to all Israeli data in the core of all strategic calculations and estimations, managed to change the Israeli amazing fast victories to a defeat that burned the consciousness and the Israeli military concepts.
Accordingly, we can say that- contrary to their strategies, their plans and their security concepts and contrary to their over self-confidence their military arrogance which is based also on their airforce superiority and their belief that they can make a swift military victory in any military confrontation with any Arab side- Hezbollah managed, durinbg this Israeli aggressive criminal war, to turn the table against all military calculations and estimations and dropping Israeli military concepts and theories and even further proved the theory " influencing the consciousness" a failure.
Hence, all Israeli calculations overturned upside-down, and the Israeli military estimations were crushed down, and the military concepts and theories collapsed; the Israeli scene turned from a state of ecstasy and full self-confidence and deep-rooted belief in having a sweeping and fast victory on Hezbollah, to a state of despair, frustration and defeatism in front of Hezbollah that wasn’t weakened and did not disintegrate, but it showed them more distress, powers and undefeated will.

Worst year in Israel’s history
Therefore, the last Hebrew year was, according to their calculations, the worst in the Hebrew State history since its emergence in 1948.
This is not a mere prediction; it is an irrefutable great truth which became alive in all Israeli houses and quarters; this war which Israel launched with premeditated intentions and plans and led to a huge strategic defeat to " the greater Israel " and its " elite army", is carved on history with its ensuing painful frustrating consequences on the entire Israeli society.
The consequences of the Israeli defeat in Lebanon in front of Hezbollah spread and expanded and affected all the military, media and political institutions and reached a tough stage to the extent that they call them " Israel’s domestic wars " or " inter- Jewish wars " or " the wars of Generals " or " the wars of the military intelligence institution" or " the wars of the military institution against the political institution".

Also, one of the most prominent consequences of the war in the inter-Israeli conflicts was those related to the historical great leaders in Israel. In this context, Eitan Haber, the Director of the Bureau the former Israeli Prime Minister, Yitzhak Rabin, and a columnist in " Yediot Aharonot " has written in the newspaper, confirming that: " the more the image of the war is clarified, the more we know how much it was tough and savage; nothing at all on the military and civilian fields was prepared for the war for making what is required in the battlefield".

Haber expressed his belief that: " the big crisis that Israel is facing now is the crisis of leadership", concluding that " the age of great leaders has ended in Israel" .
Farther than that :", more than half the Israelis fear for the future of the country and more than two thirds they expect a sudden military attack against Israel. Also, 70 % lost their confidence in the leadership and 37 % prefer to migrate to outside Israel".
All this data are not exaggerated or falsified; it has been voiced by the Israeli public opinion; the Israeli command that led the aggressive war on Lebanon is no more enjoying confidence among Israelis; Israel is no longer a safe refuge according to a third of the Israelis, and more than 70 % of the Israelis express their fully lacking confidence in the political security image of Israel.
All this serious Israeli dangerous headlines were the outcome of the the most important and serious Israeli public opinion poll carried out by the Hebrew Maariv Newspaper and published in its appendix on Friday 1/12/2006.

Dialectics of defeat, seeking to restore deterrent version
Accordingly, and in an attempt to contain this worst dimension, the Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, meant it when he launched his statement in front of the Israeli Knesset in which he threatened with having another battle against Hezbollah; Olmert declared very clearly: " We should guarantee that it will be so much better the next time ".
Then, it was Israel’s image and its deterrent version that collapsed in this confrontation with Hezbollah and it failed to improve it even in its crazy land operations in the last days of war; it can’t according to its military belief and military methodology accept such a defeat; this is because the stability and future of Israel is based- according to its writings- on its superiority and its deterrent abilities.
Within the same deterrent context, a number of Israeli army and security experts are still studying the consequences of the Israeli war on Lebanon which did not realize any achievement; an Israeli military expert said: " Improving Israel’s image and its deterrent force in front of the Arab world needs tens of years".
But this conceited military machine can’t calm down for many years; it resorted to a few escalations against Syria and Lebanon again; these few escalations are very serious and they aren’t only restricted to covering the already committed and the next massacres against the Palestinian people.
They aim also to restore the Israeli deterrent version, either through another military battle against Hezbollah- the Israeli military estimations consider this only a matter of time - or through a regional war that may include both Hezbollah and Syria, or through a more strategic war that may target Tehran- the backbone of this axis, and perhaps through an all-out Israeli war against Gaza first!.

The occupation state can’t- according to strategic calculations- calm down for forty years or more as long as there are rebel Palestinian Arab people and there is a growing resistance, and as long as there are Arab military capabilities that began to constitute a strategic threat to the Hebrew State.

Estimations of Israeli General Staff Board
According to the Israeli and US indications, the plan of restructuring and rearranging the Palestinian and regional state requires an all out war against the Palestinians- it is under implementation since the operations " Protective Barrier", "Strict Plan", then "Summer Rains ", and " Autumn Clouds" were launched.
Also, it requires another all out war in this region against Syria and Lebanon and it is a matter of time, preparations and accurate strategic calculations and a matter of an Arab and international atmosphere.
The Israeli correspondent and military analyst “Ben Kasbit " have spoken very clearly also about the increasing clouds of war; he wrote in Maariv on 25/9/2006 about the war drums, saying: " Golan Heights ", according to Ehud Olmert " will remain in our hands forever".
" The sky is seemingly full of gloomy clouds, and the war drums are heard at the background. Israel Prime Minister who speaks about " the Golan Heights " plays for the war instead of making his citizens feel safe, the one hears so and does not believe!” he adds.
The military institution didn’t- for its part- stop short of discussing this military trend; the Israeli intelligence arenas predicted that " 2007 will witness resuming the fight in the northern front while the threat of what they called " international terrorism " increases on (Israel). Hebrew newspapers on 14/9/2006".
It didn’t stop at this; the latest predictions of the Israeli Army General Staff stated that " Syria and Hezbollah may launch a war against Israel in 2007" as documented by the military columnist, Amir Ourn. Yediot on 6/11/2006.
The military predictions of the General Staff included: " while the lessons of the battle in Lebanon in July-August this year haven’t been compiled yet, the General Staff decided to freeze the multi-year planning for building up the military force, and dealing with 2007 as a year of " a bridge ", that in its end only the new armament plan is decided".

US-Israeli Military and Strategic Coalition
In such a preparatory military context, the reserve General "Yisrael Tal" demand " to study a possible official commitment with The United States again, and although there is currently a full security and political coordination between both countries, but an official defense coalition between them will complete, for Israel, the deterrence system that must be built around the country during the coming two years until the next confrontation takes place” (Maariv Newspaper)".
The military preparations and the premeditated aggressive plans against the north are not a spur of nowadays or a media story, but it is a very serious and dangerous story; the US policy before Bush’s era included Syria in the axis of evil and bears a strategic enmity against it and seeks always to change its regime; the US administration adopts- regarding this- the Israeli view towards Syria, and adopts the Israeli political program towards peace with Syria; it also adopts the Israeli attitude in the issue of not leaving the Golan!
Therefore, we say: What feeds the military plans and preparations, in addition to the Israeli desire for restoring the broken deterrent prestige, may be that joint US-Israeli attitude towards the issue of the Golan Heights.
The Hebrew newspaper Yediot Ahronot revealed, on 5/10/2006 in a report it described as classified, under the headline " Israel must does not concede Golan Heights ", a talk conductd by US President George Bush with a number of European leaders in which he said: " it is no use to talk now with the Syrians around the Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights; this is not the suitable time".
Add to this that “the Prime Minister Olmert declared clearly earlier- for his part- that he prefers that Israel maintains controlling the Golan Heights (Yediot Aharonot 26/6/2006)".
A political correspondent of Haartz Newspaper confirmed again that the Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the US administration refuse for now including Syria in any political course".
Therefore, as long as that the circumstances from the Israeli viewpoints are still not ripe for holding negotiations and peace with Syria and as long as that both Bush and Olmert prefer maintaining the Israeli control on the Golan, and as long as the most important consequences of the Israeli defeat in the last confrontation in front of Hezbollah was the collapse of the most important Israeli muths related to the air force, deterrence and the army which is undefeated, and that "Israel" seeks, consequently, more wars to restore through them what it lost in front of Hezbollah, then the minor escalations of the Israeli war are practically rising and snowballing in the four fronts: Iran, Syria, Palestine and Lebanon (Maariv 1/10/2006)".
To conclude, we can see- within the context of our strategic reading the data and the scenarios of the aggressive Israeli war against us, we the Arabs should accordingly get ready for another aggressive US- Israeli war in the near future because the status quo won’t last for long; there is in Palestine a hot spot which may snowball due to the occupation’s continuous destructive plans against the Palestinian rights.
There is- in Lebanon- a heavy defeat that the ”undefeated” army was dealt and its deterrent image was destroyed. There is- in the near future- a regional war whose indications are increasing, especially in light of the developments and the increase of the Israeli US owes in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine.

Posted in Palestine  
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