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Lebanon war…Who learns his lesson first?
Egyptian military analysts and strategic experts mentioned that Israeli army has been unable to defeat Hezbollah militias even after two weeks and despite of launching more than 4000 air raids. The last days frustrated Israeli expectations that war is not going to take more than 10 hours, and proved the failure of the its military intelligences to estimate Hezbollah’s military capabilities and pos
Wednesday, August 2,2006 00:00
by Hamam Sarhan, PIC
Egyptian military analysts and strategic experts mentioned that Israeli army has been unable to defeat Hezbollah militias even after two weeks and despite of launching more than 4000 air raids. The last days frustrated Israeli expectations that war is not going to take more than 10 hours, and proved the failure of the its military intelligences to estimate Hezbollah’s military capabilities and possibilities.
"Israel is similar to one who tries to hunt in darkness and Hezbollah’s surface-to-surface missiles have not any tangible military effect, yet they cause great financial losses to Israel. They have destroyed buildings and constructions and affected negatively the Israeli economy especially the tourist section, in addition to the constant fear and dismay the Israeli people experience in villages and towns under Hezbollah’s attack. In special statements to Suez Info, they added.
Major General, Zakariya Hussein, the former chief of the Higher Military Nasser Academy and Prof. of Strategic Sciences at Alex University, said that "In general, the current war in Middle East and especially in Lebanon and Palestine is "a disciplinary war" by a state supported by quartet power against a weak state that does not have any thing except to defend itself, so it is a disciplinary operation that we can call "a stupid war".
 
Israel and quartet power
The Major general, Zakariya added that "we are facing the Israeli quartet power army, it has the power’s four aspects including:
* Traditional power: tanks, planes and missiles.
* Extra-traditional power: chemical and biological weapons.
* Nuclear power: Israel possessed a great nuclear arsenal; it produces the atomic bomb and tries to produce hydrogen bombs.
* Space power: Israel has an increasing number of artificial satellites.
 
Dr. Zakariya indicated "The Israeli war against Lebanon is similar to the American war against Iraq which called "the desert storm". It depends on directing a missile air campaign followed by ground campaign, this kind of battles rely on a great destructive power and a high level missile technology supported by a group of artificial missiles in addition to being directed by laser, which destroys targets extremely". America supplied Israel with incendiary bombs weighted 5 tons and a number of smart bombs weighted 2.3 tons.
 
 
Which first: by land or by air?
 
"In October 73 war, the Egyptian air attack on Israel was very speedy and sudden, and did not take more than 15 minutes followed by the missile and gun attack lasted for 55 minutes, and then the ground operations took place for two weeks" The former chief of Nasser Higher Military Academy mentioned.
He added "the ground forces were the most important one, and the other weapons were the next".  As for today, especially since the desert storm operation, the air forces became the most important and the others including the ground forces became the next. During desert storm operation, which took 41 days, the air war continued 37 days whereas the ground which aimed at achieving the triumph of the air force took 4 days only.
Though two weeks have passed, the operation has not carried out its targets neither militarily, i.e. destroying Hezbollah, nor politically, i.e. releasing two Israeli detainees and giving the chance to the Lebanese state to dominate the south and dismantling Hezbollah. Dr. Zakariya stated.
He added that Israel is unable to occupy Maroon al Ra’s even after two weeks; it also met great losses in Bint Jibeel’s regions. He indicated that Hezbollah knows the Israeli dogma, so it extends war in order to involve Israel in a long war continues more than a month.
 
Arab governments and Hezbollah
 
Strategic expert, Major General Muhammad Ali Belal agrees with the Egyptian forces’ commander during the Gulf war, Major General Zakariya and added "unfortunately, the Arab governments think that the destruction of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure will serve their interests, so they circulated that the detention of two Israeli soldiers served the Iranian interests. But this is nonsense, because Hezbollah will be a gainful entity for Iran, if it faces American or Israeli attack due to its nuclear project, so what Lebanon faces now is not profitable for Iran, and Hezbollah can not sacrifice its military and political entity in order to serve Iran. Belal, the former assistant of the armed forces commander, added that the recent Rice’s suggestions about the great Middle East project after the attack against Lebanon, shows that America wants to give Israel a chance to destroy Hezbollah, and then Rice returns to the region in order to redraws the political charts. Belal confirmed that we should take into consideration that The Israeli military operations work for American’s benefits for building a new Middle East in addition to the new and great Middle East center based on liquidating Hezbollah and the opposition forces in the region, which Shimon Braes mentioned in 1994 and tries to repeat now.
 
 
Military lessons to be noticed
 
Major General Hosam Siwilam, the Strategic Researchers Chief at the Egyptian armed forces agrees with Zakariya and Belal summarizing the most important military lessons that we may take from the 15- day war between Israel and Lebanon as follows:
* Firstly, there is a great difference between the countries wars or as its called "regular wars" or "armies’ wars" and the organization wars or as its called "guerillas’ wars". So the Israeli army failed because it tried to stay the same course of its last five wars against the Arab regular armies. Israel failed during 10 days - the period of the ground war- to dominate Bint Jibeel’s region, which is only 3 or 4 kilometers.
* The Israeli military Intelligences failed, even after 15 days, to know Hezbollah’s abilities. It is fortified in a barrel rooms under ground connected each others through tunnels and surrendered by huge tubes, its diameter is between 3-5 meters, soldiers use it as fortifications and overtake Israeli forces, they appear suddenly like shadows and kill or injure, then disappear and this makes Israel like who wants to hunt in darkness. Moreover it failed to reveal Hezbollah’s missile stores or how and from where Hezbollah obtain? Israel and its Intelligences have not managed in discovering all these.
 
Psychological and economic losses
 
* Although Hezbollah uses surface-to-surface missiles on the average of 90-100 missiles a day without having caused any military tangible, it destroyed buildings and constitutions, in addition to economic losses in tourism, because of missiles targeted Haifa, moreover a state of fear and dismay, which prevailed the targeted Israeli towns and villages.
* Hezbollah is not interested in preserving places or liberating the newly occupied sites inasmuch as it concentrated on making Israel lose more in the economic and psychological fields resulting of inciting the Israeli public opinion against the government and army, which lead to a political and military confusion. In fact, this is crystal clear in furious demonstrations by a great number of Israelis calling for prompt cease-fire, in addition to burdening the responsibility of financial and human losses on government and army during the first fortnights of war.
* Hezbollah is able to attack in a range exceeds Haifa intending Tel Aviv with Zelzal II (Earthquake II) missile, which can reach 175 kilometers, as Hassan Nasrollah mentioned, but he did not dare to do so in the first fortnights, for this is a difficult decision. This decision will make Israel attacks Beirut and may the Syrian capital also resulting in a regional great war; on the other hand, it necessitates the approval of the strategic ally, i.e. Iran which supplies Hezbollah with 480 million dollars yearly besides 13 thousands missiles. Finally, despite the Israeli war against Lebanon did not achieve its political and military targets,  it destroyed buildings and constitutions, in addition to economic losses in tourism, because of missiles targeted Haifa, moreover a state of fear and  dismay prevailing in the targeted Israeli towns and villages. Is Hezbollah able to drag Israel into a long war? The coming few days will determine the choices which will come to ground, let us watch events and count numbers ( of losses and victories) during the coming days.

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