Egypt’s regime and its unsuccessful relationship with the Brotherhood.

 It is evident that the relationship between the Egyptian ruling regime and the Brotherhood is at risk of facing future repercussions. The matter neither relates to raids waged by the regime against the Muslim Brotherhood nor to the intensity of the crackdowns. In fact the existing situation is a result of multiple reasons which are leading to it.

Security campaigns were waged long before U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit sending a clear message by the Egyptian regime to the US administration so as not to open any dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood including the Brotherhood’s parliament members along with Dr. Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh.

The Egyptian regime’s fierce attacks focused on the Brotherhood’s activities especially the support of the besieged Gaza where Dr. Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh and his colleagues in the Arab Medical Union have been arrested. The Security forces expanded its crackdown with more arrests against the Movement trying to deter it from conducting the upcoming elections of a new Chairman since Mohamed Mahdi Akef has decided to retire as the Supreme Guide following the end of his first six-year term in January 2010. Hence, the expansion of the security crackdown against the Brotherhood and harassments targeting multiple objectives.

 Egypt, at this stage, witnesses security attacks as a prelude for what is to come later. The Egyptian regime will conduct the upcoming elections through two consecutive years beginning with the People’s Assembly elections and later with the presidential elections. It seems that the present regime has not yet decided its position on the Brotherhood’s participation in the forthcoming legislative elections. Is the government giving opposition candidates a degree of freedom to campaign? In other words, the regime may give freedom of non-interference in rigging the elections. The present regime’s actions and statements indicate that they have not yet decided on their position on the Brotherhood’s participation in the elections.

This fact makes more complicated calculations necessary in this thorny issue. If the ruling regime controls the elections, than its results are already determined and the Brotherhood will be banned from competing to win more seats in the new parliament. This will surely give a negative impression to the Western politicians which may be a major issue with the US administration because of its alliance with an authoritarian regime which insists on rigging the polls.

The Egyptian regime seeks full dominance in the election results without tarnishing its image. It has not yet decided on measures to take and will aim at taking all suitable precautions beginning with the successive crackdowns against the movement’s activity.

There are other motives behind the regimes’ crackdowns which worsen the situation.

 Desperate attempts by the US administration are backed by the tyrannical ruling regime in order to reach a final solution to the Palestinian issue.  Previous attempts have failed to reach a final solution to the cause since Camp David. In fact, there is an urgent need for America to hammer out a final solution for the Palestinian issue, and consequently a final solution for the ongoing wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

 We note that Israeli occupation  does not seek to reach any  final solution with the Palestinian issue since the general attitude of the Israeli occupation state favours the status quo because any final solution will be a confronting of the Palestinians which may endanger Israel’s occupation forces’ security.

However, the Arab regimes in general and the Egyptian regime in particular hope to reach a final solution at any price where any settlement is seen as important and necessary to ensure the survival of the current regimes in power for a long time.

Herein, we touch the core of the problem where any solution must have the final approval of the US and Israeli occupation as a full waiver for all the Palestinian rights will not lead to an independent Palestinian state but simply a Palestinian mini-state with mini-rights. Therefore, we are at a stage in which the leaders of the Palestinian Authority and also the Arab regimes are officially willing to renounce Palestinian, Arab and Islamic rights.

It is very necessary to control activities of the national political powers in general and Egypt’s Brotherhood in particular as well as Hamas in Palestine for paving the ways for the scenario of historical concessions. The Egyptian regime has real fears and concerns about the role the Brotherhood plays in rejecting the final status of negotiations. However, there are concerns on the attitudes of the Brotherhood, Hamas and other Islamic movements opposing the signing of the final solution.

The US administration and Egyptian regime are working to reach a deal in which the latter ensures passing of a final agreement which includes a waiver of the Palestinian rights. In fact, they jointly work to liquidate the Palestinian cause despite the fact that a final accord will unlikely be settled.

It is evident that there is a stalemate in the relationship between the Egyptian regime and the Brotherhood. The present regime tries to impose widening control over the movement and its activities. Mubarak’s regime endeavors to deter the movement’s activities by testing its endurance of the repeated crackdowns and arrests. With the continued arrests the regime can determine both the securing of the upcoming elections but most importantly the passing of concessions and negotiations in Palestine without incident