Egypt: NDP Rivalries Emerge
Stephan Roll has a new piece on the fissures in Egypt’s ruling elite in the Carnegie Endowment’s Arab Reform Bulletin. According to Roll, the National Democratic Party’s leadership is divided between an old guard, which supports traditional, statist policies and a new guard composed of businessmen who favor further privatization. While the military has not actively supported either group, Roll believes that its nonintervention represents tacit support for the old guard. Gamal Mubarak finds himself in the middle of this political melee. Over the past decade, the younger Mubarak has been closely allied with the new, business-minded politicians but if he intends to pursue a presidential campaign will have to make an effort to appeal to the old guard and their allies in the military.
The outcome of this fall’s parliamentary election will play a large role in determining Mubarak’s strategy going forward: “If candidates supported by the new guard were to win a clear majority of NDP seats, this could help Gamal to marginalize the old guard and enhance his chances of becoming the ruling party candidate. Recent reports about candidate registration, however, suggest that many old guard members want to run for parliament, and their names will not be easily deleted from the nomination list.”