Hamas Political Quake, its Effect on Mideast Islamic Movements

The effect of the latest incidents in Gaza have caused a kind of havoc, on official and popular levels in our Arab region. This icreased the tension between Islamic movements and Arab governments after Hamas seized control over Gaza, fearing its effect control extends to the West Bank as well.
 
Asked about the effect of the Hamas current attitude in Gaza on the future of the Islamic movements in the region, specially the Muslim Brotherhood which considers Hamas its main offshoot in the Palestinian occupied territories, Dr Essam El-Erian, a top leader in the Muslim Brotherhood group, said :
 
What Hamas did will undoubtedly have a big effect. This is because Hamas is influential among Islamic movements due to its iconic figures and because it is a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in Palestine. Consequently, its success or failure will affect other Islamic movements .
 
Al Erian pointed out that Hamas ascension to power through democratic elections was a success that differed from all other Islamic movements that currently have assumed power, except for the Justice and Development Party (AK party) in Turkey, specially that AK party does not consider itself an Islamic party .
 
Al Erian added that the problem isn”t that Hamas movement assumed power or that it fulfilled promises included in an election manifesto. The problem lies in Hamas status which is intermingled with a national liberation movement. This is the essential difference between it and other Muslim Brotherhood offshoots in other countries except for Iraq of course. The Muslim Brotherhood offshoots are living in countries which are controlled by a national regime in an already independent state in which they want to achieve programs of development, and reform. On the other hand, our brothers in Hamas are required to do this and to carry out another important program, the program of inter-Palestinian dialogue, ending occupation and maintaining and activating resistance. Al Erian confirmed that Hamas success in getting out of this dilemma is to the interest of all Islamic movements all over the world and its failure may negatively affect other Islamic movements.
 
Al Erian pointed out that what Hamas did in Gaza had two effects: First: a deliberate media distortion due to committing some mistakes while ending the sedition and rebellion, including killing some persons and raising Hamas flags. The second effect is that the two key countries, Egypt and Jordan were so much alarmed by Hamas success in Gaza and its possible victory in the West Bank. This will actually have very deep and negative effects. This is because the Jordanian-Egyptian plan aimed primarily at containing Hamas. It was a an important plan specially for the Egyptian side that hopes for establishing good relations with Hamas in addition to another very clear plan, of cutting the relations between Hamas in Gaza and Palestine and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
 
 
For his part, Emad Hamdi, a strategic researcher, said:
 
Palestine is a special case among Islamic and Arab issues and even in the international arena. It has a unique status and there is no static rules according to which an observer can project and predict incidents. Incidents in Palestine have had general effects on the international Islamic movement since it first emerged up till no.
 
Hamdi added that the latest developments overshadowed the Islamic movements. The effects included the shock of the Islamic movement after these developments that took place in Palestine, specially that the Islamic movements sees itself as still in the phase of formation. There are still miles away between it and the phase of rule. Also started to emerge some symptoms of assessment instability and a state of confusion around concepts like the movement, party and government and the state. The blood which was shed had a far-reaching effect. The question is about the legitimate and moral justification for these actions. There are varying states of rejection and approval according to the level of approving the idea that the movement enters the stage of rule. There is also an undeniable state of emotional confusion in front of military victory, a state of pessimism mixed with a state of disbelief and expecting defeat from unknown direction, with conspiracy theory brewing in every spot in the strip. This will undoubtedly have a future effect on the course of the Islamic movement, either to a political centeredness or to entering the wheel of ordeal and sacrifices.
 
Dr. Rafik Habib, a Coptic intellectual said:
 
” The mutual effect of the Islamic movements on each other has snowballed. Every step taken by any influential movement may strongly affect other movements. This effect doubles when we speak about movements belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood group. Hamas presence in legislative elections has inevitably affected the Muslim brotherhood group in Egypt. The victory of Hezbollah against the Israeli aggression has had an effect on the Muslim Brotherhood group although the Hezbollah is Shiite.
 
Habib added that:” Due to all this, we say that Hamas latest step of a military control over Gaza Strip has a huge effect on the Muslim Brotherhood and on policies of the Arab regimes. We can observe this effect in a very important factor: All previous incidents starting from Hamas win, the Muslim Brotherhood”s garnering of 20 % seats in the Egyptian People”s Assembly and Hezbollah”s victory over Israel. All these incidents confirm that the Islamic movement gains more public and popular support. This confirmed also that Hamas can eradicate the coupist movement in Gaza and that it can have a military control over it. All these facts put the regimes in front of a challenge, making them realize that they are facing weighty and popular Islamic movements which can”t be easily broken. This is actually the very dilemma facing the ruling regime in Egypt. This is because it can”t, logically speaking, eradicate the Muslim Brotherhood and it can”t accept it as a reality in the Egyptian political life.
 
Habib adds that:” I expect that the coming period will offer two options to the Egyptian political regime: either to face the Muslim Brotherhood group with more violence and security measures, assuming that this idea of eradication may emerge at any moment.
The second assumption is that the regime may start to deal with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as a part of the reality which it wants to curb, but can not eradicate; specially that Hamas has become a reality, not only in Gaza but in Gaza and the West Bank. It is currently dominating all Gaza Strip. Hamas is a reality which is facing, not only the Egyptian regime, but also Arab regimes, Israel and the US administration.
 
It is clear that reactions towards what Hamas has recently done were more quiet than what was expected. This proves that many parties have become sure that Hamas is a reality that can not be eradicated, and that the eradication project led by Mohammad Dahlan has been proved a failure. “
 
Regarding his personal expectation towards what will happen later on, Rafik Habib said:” Personally speaking, I think that the Egyptian regime can”t accept viewing the Muslim Brotherhood as a fait accompli at once. This period requires from the Islamic movements, Hamas or the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, to send a message to all parties: that they are a fait accompli, that this reality can be dealt with and that, consequently, all parties must scrap the idea of eradication in both political and social fields.”
 
 
Nader Fergani, the editor of the Human Development report, said:
 
The Islamic movements should be on alert during the coming period because many powers in Arab countries want to harm them especially after what took place in Gaza. The so called moderate power in our Arab region want to defeat Hamas and the Islamic movements. All Islamic powers should be on alert towards the possible harassments and treachery that may be carried out by corrupt services inside the current dictatorial regimes in our Arab region.
Regarding the relations between Arab governments and the Islamic movements after what Hamas movement carried out in Gaza, Al Fergani adds:
The Arab governments are trying to entrap the Islamic movement. They will take what happened in Gaza as pretext for adding more oppression against the Islamic movements which should continue supporting. I think there is some kind of a deliberate overblowing of fear among governments towards the Islamic movements in order to exercise more oppression against these movements.